Every episode, against every season before it

Each line is computed from the records and set against earlier US seasons plus this season's earlier episodes, so a replay shows what was a record at the time.

A conditional logit trained on every season, from any country's version, that aired before the one shown. It scores each castaway who can be voted out from their votes, challenges, idols, allies and confessionals so far. It is weak: over US seasons 31 to 50 its top pick went home about one time in four, against one in six for a blind guess, so its percentages are deliberately modest. Tap a name to see what moved its chance.

"With the episode" adds what the episode itself said before Jeff sent the tribe to vote, read from its subtitles: each castaway's share of the names said, their share of the names in talk about votes, idols and alliances, and how often they were named. It is trained on earlier US seasons the same way. Over US seasons 10 to 50 its top pick went home 34% of the time, against 25% for the model alone. It needs the episode to have aired, so it only ever describes the episode's own vote. Built on Who Goes Home (opens in a new tab).

Confessionals are the clearest trace of who the story is about. The index is a castaway's confessionals so far divided by an even share of the season's total. The band is the middle half of eventual winners of other US seasons at the same episode.

A square is how often two castaways still in the game cast the same first vote at the councils they both attended; blank means they have not shared one. A bloc is a group in which every pair has voted together at least three times in four over two or more councils.

For each castaway still in the game, the three players from other US seasons whose games were closest at the same episode: immunity wins, team challenge record, votes received, votes with the majority, councils, idols and confessional index. How a comp finished is what happened to them, not a forecast.